Top Chef D.C. – Power Rankings and Odds (8/20/10)

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Episode 10 means we’re down to the home stretch. We’re down to six contestants from seventeen, and as last week’s elimination of Kenny showed us, strong competitors are going to start dropping off. This week was the long-expected departure of Alex, and what I thought was a pretty shocking bit of nastiness from the remaining contestants when he told the group of his elimination. In every previous elimination, we had sadness, hugs, best wishes, and all of that. When Alex announces he’s the one leaving, there’s nothing. It’s as if the group collectively said “good, GTFO” (with the exception of Amanda, who had struck up a friendship with Alex – perhaps sympathetically - recently) and made no effort to hide it because they wanted him to know that he wasn’t welcome. Contrast that to the reception he received in the “loser house” where the chefs go after they’re eliminated, and it’s night and day – smiles, handshakes, and all that. Sure, you can say that the chefs were being honest, but it just came off as bitter and spiteful.

ANYWAY, to the rankings:

6. Amanda Baumgarten

STATS: 0 Elimination Wins, 1 Quickfire Win, 1 Time in Top Group, 4 Times in Bottom Group
LAST WEEK: 6
MOVEMENT: 0

OK, show of hands – who had Amanda making it to the final six? PUT YOUR HANDS DOWN, LIARS. Some argue that Amanda shouldn’t have made it passed episode two, where her use of sherry in a school cafeteria made peoples’ heads explode. But she continues to chug along, dodging bullets left and right. She was in the bottom group this past week, although she was probably the “best” of that group. The thing for her now though is there are six people left, and five of them have shown enough talent to win an elimination and potentially win this competition. Amanda would be #6. She’s staying alive, but it’s just a matter of time.  ODDS: 100-1

5. Kevin Sbraga

STATS: 1 Elimination Win, 1 Quickfire Win, 4 Times in Top Group, 4 Times in Bottom Group
LAST WEEK: 2
MOVEMENT: -3

I told you it was tight. Kevin was pretty much a non-factor this week, making an uninspired Cobb salad hidden as a Cobb salad. Oddly, this was the first week he wasn’t in front of the judges since episode two. The jury is still out as to how well he will do without best buddy Kenny around to shoot ideas off of. He’s got the ability to knock out a great dish, but when he fails he fails hard, and there isn’t much wiggle room at this point. ODDS: 7-1

4. Ed Cotton

STATS: 1 Elimination Win, 1 Quickfire Win, 4 Times in Top Group, 2 Times in Bottom Group
LAST WEEK: 5
MOVEMENT: +1

Ed is starting to gain some momentum here, and I considered putting him at #3, but his dish for this week’s Elimination Challenge sent two very different messages. On one hand, he made a dish that people loved and talked about that maybe – if judged without a theme – might have won this week. He is showing that he has the skills to compete with any chef in this competition. At the same time, his lack of imagination with the dish and inability to work with the theme makes you think that if he’s put into an Elimination Challenge with a difficult theme he’ll struggle hard. I like his chances a lot better than I did two weeks ago, but I’m not completely sold. I will say that it looks like the “honeymoon is over” between him and Tiffany, and this may help him. ODDS: 7-1

3. Angelo Sosa

STATS: 1 Elimination Win, 3 Quickfire Wins, 3 Times in Top Group, 1 Time in Bottom Group
LAST WEEK: 1
MOVEMENT: -2

What the hell was that? It was the golden boy Angelo needing to send a thank you card to Alex because if Alex doesn’t completely destroy his veal, Angelo is the one packing his knives. I start to wonder if something happened behind the scenes that threw Angelo for a loop, because he seemed completely out of it this whole episode. Then there’s the possibility that Angelo was focusing on Kenny as his “main competition” and losing him threw him off. Either way, the other chefs are starting to pass him by. ODDS: 4-1

2. Kelly Liken

STATS: 2 Elimination Wins, 2 Quickfire Wins, 5 Times in Top Group, 2 Times in Bottom Group
LAST WEEK: 4
MOVEMENT: +2

Maybe it’s because I’m a fan, but I think Kelly did the best job this week with the Elimination Challenge. Working with no reference as to what her original dish was supposed to taste like, Kelly managed not only to replicate it, but to execute the theme (“hiding” the Kung Pao shrimp in a soup dish) and deliver a dish that the judges liked. The creativity was there, the experience was there, and the talent was there. She did hit a few roadblocks though where she had to rely on Tiffany helping her out, a luxury she isn’t always going to have. ODDS: 3-1

1. Tiffany Derry

STATS: 2 Elimination Wins, 2 Quickfire Wins, 6 Times in Top Group, 0 Times in Bottom Group
LAST WEEK: 3
MOVEMENT: +2

I think it’s time to scrap the “possible contender” talk and move Tiffany to the “strong favorites” category. She has stepped up her game and been on fire the last five episodes, including dominating two of the last three episodes by sweeping both the Quickfire and Elimination challenges. She’s been in the top group each of these last five episodes, and with Angelo’s brush with elimination this week has been the only chef not to fall into the bottom group this season. It’s becoming clearer that Tiffany is the chef to beat this season. ODDS: 2-1