American Idol: Season 9 Top 12 Preview

It’s hard to explain why I watch American Idol each season, but I’ll try.

One would think with my disdain of “reality TV” and pop music that I’d avoid Idol like the Plague, and I tried to initially. But as in any good relationship you learn to make compromise, and for me it meant watching Idol when it first came on. Admittedly, the train wrecks during the initial auditions were amusing, but that grew old after people started going completely out of their way to be “bad” for Idol. We get it – you’re an attention whore. Go away now.

But as seasons progressed, I began to enjoy the “sport” of Idol. When I watch baseball, I don’t watch it to blindly cheer on one team over the other; I’m watching to predict how players and managers will react to situations and second-guess them. It’s the strategy going into the game, wondering if the team has the talent to execute the gameplan, and seeing how luck affects the outcome.

It’s almost the exact same thing for me with Idol. While I don’t know music like I know baseball, I know it well enough to know when something isn’t working. Idol is all about strategy – picking the right song that will work with the theme, knowing what you can hit and what you can’t, and actually following through while hoping that the people you’re going up against don’t suddenly make you look like crap.

Of course, in the case of Idol there’s one more thing – the voters. You could be the best singer of the night, but without appealing to the audience, you’re not going to get the votes to put you through the following week. I guess that’s a large part of the appeal for me too – studying how the audience votes each week, trying to factor that into the quality of the performance, and attempting to predict the “shocking” outcomes that aren’t always so shocking.

So, with the “Final 12” scheduled to perform tonight (FOX, 8/7c), let’s take a look at who has a shot, and who is shooting to survive enough weeks to get on the national tour:

ONES TO BEAT

When it comes to actually “winning” Idol, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the most talented person will win the show. You have to think about who is actually making the effort to pick up the phone and call the toll free number or text to vote. Recently it has been more difficult for women to succeed on Idol, which may be attributed to this.

Crystal Bowersox – Right now, she’s got to be the strongest favorite. Bowersox doesn’t have the eye-catching appeal of a Carrie Underwood, but that kind of presumed “strike” against her could get her more votes as she may be perceived as “needing” the Idol win more than a more “marketable” contestant. The major strike against her right now is her health – a trip to the hospital caused the girls’ night to be pushed back a day and the stress of the later rounds may make her not at 100% through the competition, leaving her vulnerable.

Siobhan Magnus – A solid #2 right now, Siobhan hasn’t looked weak the three times she’s performed so far, and with a musical family (her dad is a musician too) she’s not going to go out of her range and sing a song that she isn’t capable of singing. She’s young (19), quirky, and has a good smile too, so she has the potential to appeal to most of the audience. What I think could cost her potentially down the line is her interest in the competition. Part of her quirkiness is that she seems to be blind to the fact that she’s in a competition; she just goes out each week and sings a song as best she can. While that’s great for her, song choice can be important in the later rounds and if she starts picking songs that most of the audience doesn’t know, she could lose them.

Casey James – Ah, Captain Shirtless. Forever tagged as the one Kara DioGuardi has a crush on, Casey has had three strong enough performances to make him one of the best male competitors this season. The reason Casey stands out over the others is his looks – he’s got front page appeal, and Idol has a past history of letting guys with long hair and a good smile get far in the competition. If Casey plays smart and busts out performances like he did three weeks ago with Bryan Adams’ “Heaven”, Casey’s a serious threat to take it all.

ONE KNOCKOUT PERFORMANCE AWAY

Lee DeWyze – DeWyze is a guitar guy who lists Cat Stevens, Eric Clapton, and Ben Harper as his musical influences. While he hasn’t done anything outstanding that has made anyone say that he’s a favorite, he hasn’t really made any mistakes either. He’s got a decent look, so he could very easily coast into the later rounds, especially if the fans find something in him to attach to, like a personal story. However, since he hasn’t stood out, he’s also in danger in these early rounds of getting lost in the shuffle, and if he can’t stand out, he’ll never get that following he needs and be gone early.

Andrew Garcia – Andrew already had his “knockout performance”; unfortunately for him, it was in the Hollywood stage when he did an acoustic version of Paula Abdul’s “Straight Up” which was about 100 times better than the original that had people seeing David Cook all over again. That alone probably got him to the Top 12, but patience is running out. Garcia went to the well again in a desperate attempt to make lightning strike twice with a cover of Christina Aguilera’s “Genie In A Bottle” last week, with trainwreck results. I’m pulling for the guy personally – he’s got a real good story, I dig his West Side Buddy Holly look, and I know he’s got the chops, but if he can’t figure out what works for him he could just as easily be gone this week. OK, maybe not this week. But soon.

Michael Lynche – Almost every season, there’s some person who sings completely different than they look. Idol has had their share of big guys, but Michael probably has the strongest chance of any in recent memory. He’s reminiscent of Ruben Studdard in that “giant but friendly” way, and Ruben ended up riding that all the way to winning Season 2. Lynche also has the backstory – his wife was in labor while he was trying out for Idol, so I think there was still some lingering aftereffects from that when it came to voting. Michael appears to be a damn smart player, restirring that connection with his family last week with his song choice and making Kara cry. You remember performances like that more favorably and get caught up in the moment; Simon called it the best performance from the last three weeks. Not really.

Didi Benami – Didi running behind Crystal and Siobhan right now, but she has a more polished look than the other two and likely would have more appeal to a male audience. I don’t know how much the male audience of Idol votes, but she could very well capture that segment. Didi could do very well this season, but her major strike against her is that she’s bringing to the table the same product as Crystal Bowersox, albeit in a prettier package. When performances are judged side-by-side though, Didi likely going to come up short (unless she’s got something there that we don’t know about) so Didi’s got to hope Crystal loses some popularity points or has to drop out, because if Bowersox is gone before she is, Didi could vie for the final night.

SHOOTING FOR 10^TH PLACE

Ah, the also-rans. The “just happy to be here” crowd. In reality, they’re all shooting for 10^th place – the top 10 contestants do a summer concert tour after the season completes. While only the winner is guaranteed a record contract, the top 10 are at least guaranteed a paying gig after the show is done. The other two – not so much.

Lacey Brown – Slowly getting better, Lacey managed to escape the top 24 after butchering Fleetwood Mac’s “Landslide” (a famous Idol eliminator) and has progressively done better each week following. She still doesn’t seem to have found her style though, and her blindly following a judge’s selection on song choice two weeks back shows that she’s lost. She’s not a bad singer, but it would surprise the hell out of me if she made it to the final 6.

Tim Urban – Much like Dante Hicks, Tim Urban’s not even supposed to be here. Urban didn’t make the Top 24, but fell into a slot when Chris Golightly was disqualified. What has he done to prove that he belongs? Nothing. Tim busted out Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah” and didn’t embarrass himself, which was gold since it’s such a great song. Being 20 will only help him so long though.

Aaron Kelly – As much as I love to hear Randy say week in and week out “he’s only 16 dog!” that only works if people stand back and are amazed that someone 16 years old performed at that level. Aaron doesn’t do that, and while I’m sure he’ll get a few squeals, he won’t be around long.

Katie Stevens – Katie’s the youngest girl, and she’s just as surprised to be here as we are. Katie’s selection over Lilly Scott got one of the best “WTF!” looks on stage from Scott after it was announced and ruined weeks worth of “Albino from the Princess Bride” jokes I had this season, so I won’t be sad to see her go.

Paige Miles – Probably my best guess to be gone this week. She’s got almost nothing going for her – no momentum off of a good song, no look, no great story. Hell, she’s not even bad enough to trainwreck songs each week to at least get the whole Sanjaya thing rolling.

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